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Thread: What Constitutes a 'Substantial Meal'?

  1. #21
    Between pubs sheffield hatter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dave M View Post
    So the latest tier updates make a whole lot of sense then.

    Greater Manchester has to be treated as a whole, for not entirely clear reasons. Seems very unfair on Tameside and Stockport but fair enough if they don't want to create odd tier borders.

    But with me Bristol will be coming down to tier 2 but not South Glos, that means that come Saturday I can walk to the end of my road and if I turn left the pubs will be open, turn right and they will be closed.
    Yes, it's incoherent and inconsistent. For example, Lancaster went into Lockdown 2 with just over 200 new infections per week per 100,000 population, but on a downward trend, and lobbied to be in Tier 2 when they came out with just over 100 per 100,000. But they had to go into Tier 3, the same as the rest of Lancashire because it would be too confusing and difficult to enforce.

    Luton, meanwhile, went into Lockdown 2 with just over 250 new infections per week per 100,000 population, but on an upward trend, emerging on 280, nearly three times as many infections per 100,000 as Lancaster, and went into Tier 2. Luton is a unitary authority, so it would have been simple to have Tier 2 for the rest of Bedfordshire and Tier 3 for Luton. (See this newspaper article: Luton has higher infection rate than nearly 80% of Tier 3 areas. The latest government announcement has all of Beds now in Tier 3.)
    Come On You Hatters!

  2. #22
    Glass Half Empty Brainypool's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dave M View Post
    But with me Bristol will be coming down to tier 2 but not South Glos, that means that come Saturday I can walk to the end of my road and if I turn left the pubs will be open, turn right and they will be closed.
    Same situation for me here on the Greater Manchester - Merseyside border.

    I really don’t understand the logic of not splitting Lancashire when Essex has been. Most of it should be tier 2 but has been left to rot in tier 3 because of the situation in East Lancashire. It’s a huge county... Lancaster, the Fylde and West Lancs are very far away from the problem areas.

  3. #23
    This Space For Hire Wittenden's Avatar
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    So much for Kent being splitarts of East Sussex and Surrey now in Tier 3.Looks as if I won't get to eat a Scotch-Egg this side of whenever.
    "At that moment I would have given a kingdom, not for champagne or hock and soda, or hot coffee but for a glass of beer" Marquess Curzon of Kedlestone, Viceroy of India.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wittenden View Post
    So much for Kent being splitarts of East Sussex and Surrey now in Tier 3.Looks as if I won't get to eat a Scotch-Egg this side of whenever.
    First they came for the Mancs...etc.

  5. #25
    Administrator Dave M's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sheffield hatter View Post
    Luton is a unitary authority, so it would have been simple to have Tier 2 for the rest of Bedfordshire and Tier 3 for Luton.
    To be fair Bedfordshire in general is trending pretty badly. I put together this https://covid19data.xyz/ for my own analysis of what's going on (hence no key explaining any of it!)

    Last week and This Week are raw numbers up to 2 days ago, % is the week on week change, per 100k is this week per capita and Next is where things would be next week with same week on week change.

    The trend column shows four one day comparison indicators, they are from left to right
    11th compared to 4th
    12th compared to 5th
    13th compared to 6th
    14th compared to 7th

    5 options are down ↓, same -, up less than 20% ^, up 20-50% ^, up more than 50% ^

    The rightmost one has very much incomplete data due to reporting/testing delays, so where it is already a bold, red upward arrow that is a really bad sign.

    Bedford & Central Bedfordshire look pretty solid tier 3 to me.

    Ones that stand out as surprisingly still tier 2 are Rushmoor, Oxford, Wealden, Uttlesford

  6. #26
    Between pubs sheffield hatter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dave M View Post
    To be fair Bedfordshire in general is trending pretty badly.
    Yes, I note from your figures that Bedford is going up more rapidly than Luton, from a lower base, and is predicted to surge past the Hatters and score in the last minute of time added on. May have got a little confused there.

    However, what it does show is a) that the Tier system doesn't seem to be working, b) closing pubs or limiting access to drinks-with-meals-only doesn't have the desired effect either, and c) Luton should never have been in non-league in the first place. Quite clearly they deserve to be in the Championship.
    Come On You Hatters!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dave M View Post
    Ones that stand out as surprisingly still tier 2 are Rushmoor, Oxford, Wealden, Uttlesford
    My mother lives in Oxford and she's due to have the jab on Saturday. She's 80 and has no underlying health issues, unless 'occasionally bloody annoying' qualifies. As they're a higher priority, I assume therefore that everyone in Oxfordshire's care homes has been jabbed, and that the inoculation is being rolled out to the wider public, so perhaps that's why it fares well.

  8. #28
    This is not an exit Komakino's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tris39 View Post
    My mother lives in Oxford and she's due to have the jab on Saturday. She's 80 and has no underlying health issues, unless 'occasionally bloody annoying' qualifies. As they're a higher priority, I assume therefore that everyone in Oxfordshire's care homes has been jabbed, and that the inoculation is being rolled out to the wider public, so perhaps that's why it fares well.
    Ironically enough, I live in Oxfordshire and the other half works in a care home and they've had no indication as to when they, or their residents will have the jab made available to the company that runs the place. As we're in South Oxfordshire, we're surrounded on three sides by the (soon-to-be) Tier 3 Buckinghamshire, so starting to feel a bit hemmed in now!
    "Breakneck speed we drown ten pints of bitter"

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    Quote Originally Posted by Komakino View Post
    Ironically enough, I live in Oxfordshire and the other half works in a care home and they've had no indication as to when they, or their residents will have the jab made available to the company that runs the place. As we're in South Oxfordshire, we're surrounded on three sides by the (soon-to-be) Tier 3 Buckinghamshire, so starting to feel a bit hemmed in now!
    My mum is well turned 80 and in South Oxon too. She's yet to be called. I suspect the pecking order in each group is a bit random, depends where you are in the alphabet or if you were in when they rang or if you happened to be at the doctor's for some other reason.

    Round here we got summoned for our flu jabs by text, no idea what happens with people who haven't got a mobile phone. Like my mum.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sheffield hatter View Post
    Yes, I note from your figures that Bedford is going up more rapidly than Luton, from a lower base, and is predicted to surge past the Hatters and score in the last minute of time added on. May have got a little confused there.

    However, what it does show is a) that the Tier system doesn't seem to be working, b) closing pubs or limiting access to drinks-with-meals-only doesn't have the desired effect either, and c) Luton should never have been in non-league in the first place. Quite clearly they deserve to be in the Championship.
    Agreed. The two main factors are seasonality and community immunity.

    The areas affected now are those less-well connected to the initial outbreak, and where the sunny April did one for the virus.

    Lockdowns only work if absolute - not that I want to give them any ideas.

    This whole charade is about giving the impression of Doing Something. And just watch them take the credit when it vanishes naturally as all SARS have done.

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