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Thread: How Will Pubs Open?

  1. #131
    Old & Bitter oldboots's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sheffield hatter View Post
    Not sure I understand what you mean. Your comment in another thread about a pub being "relaxed about the stupid guidance" suggests that you think this whole pandemic thing has been made up, or exaggerated, and that government responses in the UK have been over the top.

    If so, I hope you don't find out the hard way just how serious it can be.
    I dare say people's views depend on their membership or not, of one of the risk categories and their perception of risk. A previously healthy man under 40 has a small risk compared an old bloke of over 60. Current figures show the percentage of confirmed cases is about 0.46% of the UK population and total deaths confirmed from CV19 at 0.07% of the UK population, and as we know most deaths are of inmates of hospitals, care homes, and among the poor and BAME. Pretty good odds if you're not in an at risk group. And remember lock-down was brought in to "flatten the curve", which it succeeded at.

    I suspect we will eventually take the kind of pragmatic outlook that people in the past did to disease, the days when a simple cut could lead to death by Sepsis or when TB carried off thousands every year. Adding in the coming problems of anti-biotic resistant bugs the days of "isn't medical science wonderful" are probably numbered.
    Drink drink, whoever you may be,
    we are the drunk and disorderly,
    and we’ll drink more beer wherever we may be,
    and we’ll meet you all in a pub said he.

    Dr Busker

  2. #132
    Pub researcher (unpaid) rpadam's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by oldboots View Post
    I suspect we will eventually take the kind of pragmatic outlook that people in the past did to disease, the days when a simple cut could lead to death by Sepsis or when TB carried off thousands every year. Adding in the coming problems of anti-biotic resistant bugs the days of "isn't medical science wonderful" are probably numbered.
    Thanks for cheering us up!

  3. #133
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    Quote Originally Posted by sheffield hatter View Post
    Not sure I understand what you mean. Your comment in another thread about a pub being "relaxed about the stupid guidance" suggests that you think this whole pandemic thing has been made up, or exaggerated, and that government responses in the UK have been over the top.

    If so, I hope you don't find out the hard way just how serious it can be.
    The supposed uptick in 'cases' is just due to more random testing and the vast majority have no symptoms.

    What IS serious is having a National Covid Service for six months rather than a National Health Service.

  4. #134
    Between pubs sheffield hatter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tris39 View Post
    I don't think that this will ever end, but the problem is knowing what to do, barring the arrival of an effective inoculation which could take years. We can't sacrifice the economy and should shops et al be forced to close once more, it will send a signal that they will be allowed to open, forced to close, allowed to open, forced to close and so on, which is simply not possible. Should schools open at the expense of, say, the hospitality industry, is it better to send kids to school or put their parents out of a job? There's no easy answer, but in a radio interview the other day, the former head of Punch Taverns said that if pubs are forced to close again, around 30-40% probably won't open ever again. I'm of the opinion, despite being moderately 'vulnerable', not least having spent two weeks in hospital with pneumonia at the age of eight, that trying to hide from a virus is a bit like trying to push water uphill.
    I can agree or at least sympathise with a lot of what you say. Of course we all want things to be like what they were before, and the prospect of 30% or more of pubs not opening again ever will strike to the hearts of people on this forum, no doubt. (There's a clue in the name: 30% fewer than before is a poor definition of "galore".) I get the feeling that Johnson & Cummings wanted to go down the route you are (sort of) advocating, but they chickened out (or bowed to advice to the contrary). They could probably (make that certainly) put up with the loss of a few Spinkos, Tris39s and sheffield hatters if it meant that things would go back to normal quicker, but it could be made to look uncaring with the electorate.
    Come On You Hatters!

  5. #135
    Between pubs sheffield hatter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spinko View Post
    The supposed uptick in 'cases' is just due to more random testing and the vast majority have no symptoms.
    This was certainly true of the early scare about huge numbers of cases in, for example, Sheffield and in the Morecambe Bay area, but this has since been shown to be the result of a more rigorous testing regime initiated by the respective health authorities or whatever they are now called; I would argue that they were right to do so. (Doing tests at airports might have been a good idea, too.) And the fact that the majority of people with the disease were asymptomatic shows what we're up against. People who thought they were in perfect health were actually spreading the virus to their family, friends and people down the pub.

    Quote Originally Posted by Spinko View Post
    What IS serious is having a National Covid Service for six months rather than a National Health Service.
    Agree with you there. What was the point of setting up Nightingale Hospitals to relieve the pressure on the regular hospitals, and then cancelling all the regular stuff in serious things like oncology while not actually using the Nightingale Hospitals. This is why the true measure of the impact is the excess deaths figure, rather than the deaths that have Covid-19 on the death certificate.
    Come On You Hatters!

  6. #136
    Between pubs sheffield hatter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by oldboots View Post
    I suspect we will eventually take the kind of pragmatic outlook that people in the past did to disease, the days when a simple cut could lead to death by Sepsis or when TB carried off thousands every year. Adding in the coming problems of anti-biotic resistant bugs the days of "isn't medical science wonderful" are probably numbered.
    Quote Originally Posted by rpadam View Post
    Thanks for cheering us up!
    Yes, making me regret leaving the pub at 9:30 when they were still open.
    Come On You Hatters!

  7. #137
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    Quote Originally Posted by sheffield hatter View Post
    I can agree or at least sympathise with a lot of what you say. Of course we all want things to be like what they were before, and the prospect of 30% or more of pubs not opening again ever will strike to the hearts of people on this forum, no doubt. (There's a clue in the name: 30% fewer than before is a poor definition of "galore".) I get the feeling that Johnson & Cummings wanted to go down the route you are (sort of) advocating, but they chickened out (or bowed to advice to the contrary). They could probably (make that certainly) put up with the loss of a few Spinkos, Tris39s and sheffield hatters if it meant that things would go back to normal quicker, but it could be made to look uncaring with the electorate.
    There's just no solution: I live in an area where there's a large amount of tourism and including a lot of tourists from China. I had a very 'interesting' and sharp flu-like illness over Christmas, including a very harsh cough and higher than normal temperature; it didn't clear up until at least the second week of January, leaving me thinking that this was just the result of increased age.
    In March, I bought an in-ear thermometer at the outset, used it obsessively for a month, but gave up using it ages ago. I've been to convenience stores...let's just say a hell of a lot, given that I've been out walking with cans every day, though tomorrow will mark the twentieth week since I socialised with anyone; next week I'll probably start making an effort.

    Quote Originally Posted by sheffield hatter View Post
    Yes, making me regret leaving the pub at 9:30 when they were still open.
    I think that pubs were actually supposed to close at 9.00? or 9.30? on 20th March though many carried on regardless.

    Quote Originally Posted by Spinko View Post
    The supposed uptick in 'cases' is just due to more random testing and the vast majority have no symptoms.

    What IS serious is having a National Covid Service for six months rather than a National Health Service.
    Yes. I agree that both of these are probably accurate. Apparently there are about 3,500 cancer diagnoses each week, so around 180,000 per year. And my sister (48) has had to come off chemotherapy as it diminishes her immune system, at a time when she needs it most...

  8. #138
    Old & Bitter oldboots's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tris39 View Post

    I think that pubs were actually supposed to close at 9.00? or 9.30? on 20th March though many carried on regardless.
    Boris said in the Commons on the afternoon of Friday 20th that pubs were to close at 9pm that evening, however there was no force of law until 2pm on Saturday 21st when the powers given to the Secretary of State for Health actually become law. I stayed in the pub drinking Sarah Hughes until I was full on the Friday night but oddly, I didn't fancy a pint on Saturday morning even though some pubs were open (legally).
    Drink drink, whoever you may be,
    we are the drunk and disorderly,
    and we’ll drink more beer wherever we may be,
    and we’ll meet you all in a pub said he.

    Dr Busker

  9. #139
    Between pubs sheffield hatter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tris39 View Post
    I think that pubs were actually supposed to close at 9.00? or 9.30? on 20th March though many carried on regardless.
    I wasn't actually referring to 20 March. I meant leaving the pub I was in last night, coming home and logging on here to be reminded by oldboots that we were all revisiting the 14th century, as far as science-based medicine is concerned.
    Come On You Hatters!

  10. #140
    Between pubs sheffield hatter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spinko View Post
    The supposed uptick in 'cases' is just due to more random testing and the vast majority have no symptoms.

    Quote Originally Posted by sheffield hatter View Post
    ... the fact that the majority of people with the disease were asymptomatic shows what we're up against. People who thought they were in perfect health were actually spreading the virus to their family, friends and people down the pub.
    The other thing about asymptomatic spreaders is that if people routinely ignore the distancing regime and gather together in large crowds, the virus is going to get passed around more and more. The more contacts you meet, the more chance there is that you'll pick up a critical viral load, and the more chance there is that your immune system won't be able to deal with it.

    I'm not sure how many of the so-called random tests Spinko refers to have taken place - my understanding was that anyone with symptoms can request a test, but only medical staff were being routinely tested. If that is right, but those tests are stopped for whatever reason, then medical staff who have the virus but are not showing symptoms, instead of self-isolating, will be going back onto wards where they can pass on the virus to others.

    Up to now, I have been going back to pubs on the basis that people are being careful to keep themselves, other pub goers and pub workers safe. I haven't seen any careless pubgoers, apart from that one half-hour in Ramsbottom(#47), and even that wasn't exactly like a Roman orgy. Hopefully I'm going to the right sort of pubs. If those pubs start to be invaded by people who think it's all been a bit overblown and it's about time everyone had a really good night out, perhaps I'll need to think again.
    Come On You Hatters!

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