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The New Year is often a time for looking forward to what the next twelve months are likely to bring. Now, I have to say I have a rather mixed record on predictions having, for example, greatly overstated the extent to which brewers would re-jig their beer ranges in response to the 2.8% and 7.5% duty thresholds introduced a couple of years ago, and believing that two-thirds-pint “schooners” had actually more than zero chance of being widely adopted.
However, I did get it right with the strength of Old Speckled Hen, as it has recently been cut to 5.0%, if not to 4.8%. And a couple of years ago I indulged in some wishful thinking, none of which of course came to pass.
So, taking inspiration from Archbishop Cranmer, here are a few random but rather dull thoughts about what we are likely to see during 2014:
  • Beer duty will rise by the rate of inflation. The duty escalator will continue to apply to all other drinks categories
  • Craft keg ales will not make a significant breakthrough into mainstream pubs, but there will be a modest expansion of British-brewed “craft lager”
  • Beer sales in the on-trade will decline by about 5%, those in the off-trade by slightly less, but still showing a negative figure
  • Overall per capita alcohol consumption will continue to fall
  • There will be more breweries in the UK at the end of the year than at the beginning
  • At least one popular beer brand currently sold at 4.8% ABV will have its strength reduced to 4.5%. “The taste will be unaffected”, its makers will claim
  • A prominent pub in the Stockport MBC area that nobody had imagined was vulnerable will close its doors for the last time
  • Some bizarre concept of which I cannot even dream will become the “next big thing” amongst railway arch brewers and gushing bloggers will claim that “everyone is brewing XXXX”
    England will not progress beyond the quarter-finals of the World Cup (if that), thus denying a boost to the brewing industry and pub trade



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