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18-01-2024, 07:10
Visit the Shut up about Barclay Perkins site (http://barclayperkins.blogspot.com/2024/01/past-predictions-of-futiure.html)
https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4_FFf3RFesKO7lDp0HRr33Z0Zy3JZJjVUERDdUpo9ym 2AjcUoFI-7eo02IAJaRVjL6Qz8HzMTfA2xFzN9f6qD5VNRMpDxwfvGYC2Fn 22HS3-KdNk0iVP5mlxMKetWhEcxmUx0R-E3zERL_j3VbjLfiNU43EmY7wngm1A9Vr1KZzEbdykeict4-S3BNg4/w335-h400/Whitbread_Brewmaster_Export_Pale_Ale.jpg (https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4_FFf3RFesKO7lDp0HRr33Z0Zy3JZJjVUERDdUpo9ym 2AjcUoFI-7eo02IAJaRVjL6Qz8HzMTfA2xFzN9f6qD5VNRMpDxwfvGYC2Fn 22HS3-KdNk0iVP5mlxMKetWhEcxmUx0R-E3zERL_j3VbjLfiNU43EmY7wngm1A9Vr1KZzEbdykeict4-S3BNg4/s514/Whitbread_Brewmaster_Export_Pale_Ale.jpg)
With future prediction season well under way. I thought I'd pitch in with a look at the future from fifty years ago. Where did industry insiders think brewing was headed in 1970? And just how amusingly wrong is it?
We'll kick off with brewing itself. What sort of breweries would exist in the future?
"The current trend towards fewer but much larger breweries, such as Whitbread's at Luton, may well continue until the brewing giants each have only one or two units serving the whole country. At the same time, the continuing rationalisation of brewing materials and the added desirability of preparing them economically in large quantities may mean that these strategically-sited production centres will be supplied with concentrated wort from adjacent new materials "factories".At first sight, this manner of production may appear to be ideal, but there is another school of thought that says we could well see a return to localised brewing in the future, though with small, highly-automated continuous plant, probably controlled from the company's head office many miles away. An important advantage of this system, of course, would be in the huge savings in transport costs."
Brewers' Guardian, Volume 99, January 1970, page 33.As it turned out, neither of those predictions turned out to be true. Whitbread’s ill-fated Luton plant probably wasn’t the best example of a new brewery to pick. Bass Charrington genuinely had a plan of serving the whole of the UK from just two breweries. Neither did concentrated wort factories appear. So, 100% miss in the first paragraph.
The other extreme – small, local continuous fermentation plants – didn’t happen, either. Mostly because continuous fermentation couldn’t be got to work. At least, it couldn’t be made to produce beer people actually wanted to drink.
What really happened? The big brewers did build megabreweries. Bass had Runcorn. Courage had Worton Grange. And where are they now? All closed. And, while the nightmare of just a handful of breweries producing all the country's beer never materialised, the bulk is brewed in just a few large breweries.
What's completely missing are the new arrivals at the bottom end. Not continuous-fermentation plants, but small traditional breweries. Though you can't really blame anyone in 1970, before any new breweries had been founded (other than Traquair House), for not predicting that.
It all goes to show what a mug's game predicting the long-term future is.
More... (http://barclayperkins.blogspot.com/2024/01/past-predictions-of-futiure.html)
https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4_FFf3RFesKO7lDp0HRr33Z0Zy3JZJjVUERDdUpo9ym 2AjcUoFI-7eo02IAJaRVjL6Qz8HzMTfA2xFzN9f6qD5VNRMpDxwfvGYC2Fn 22HS3-KdNk0iVP5mlxMKetWhEcxmUx0R-E3zERL_j3VbjLfiNU43EmY7wngm1A9Vr1KZzEbdykeict4-S3BNg4/w335-h400/Whitbread_Brewmaster_Export_Pale_Ale.jpg (https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4_FFf3RFesKO7lDp0HRr33Z0Zy3JZJjVUERDdUpo9ym 2AjcUoFI-7eo02IAJaRVjL6Qz8HzMTfA2xFzN9f6qD5VNRMpDxwfvGYC2Fn 22HS3-KdNk0iVP5mlxMKetWhEcxmUx0R-E3zERL_j3VbjLfiNU43EmY7wngm1A9Vr1KZzEbdykeict4-S3BNg4/s514/Whitbread_Brewmaster_Export_Pale_Ale.jpg)
With future prediction season well under way. I thought I'd pitch in with a look at the future from fifty years ago. Where did industry insiders think brewing was headed in 1970? And just how amusingly wrong is it?
We'll kick off with brewing itself. What sort of breweries would exist in the future?
"The current trend towards fewer but much larger breweries, such as Whitbread's at Luton, may well continue until the brewing giants each have only one or two units serving the whole country. At the same time, the continuing rationalisation of brewing materials and the added desirability of preparing them economically in large quantities may mean that these strategically-sited production centres will be supplied with concentrated wort from adjacent new materials "factories".At first sight, this manner of production may appear to be ideal, but there is another school of thought that says we could well see a return to localised brewing in the future, though with small, highly-automated continuous plant, probably controlled from the company's head office many miles away. An important advantage of this system, of course, would be in the huge savings in transport costs."
Brewers' Guardian, Volume 99, January 1970, page 33.As it turned out, neither of those predictions turned out to be true. Whitbread’s ill-fated Luton plant probably wasn’t the best example of a new brewery to pick. Bass Charrington genuinely had a plan of serving the whole of the UK from just two breweries. Neither did concentrated wort factories appear. So, 100% miss in the first paragraph.
The other extreme – small, local continuous fermentation plants – didn’t happen, either. Mostly because continuous fermentation couldn’t be got to work. At least, it couldn’t be made to produce beer people actually wanted to drink.
What really happened? The big brewers did build megabreweries. Bass had Runcorn. Courage had Worton Grange. And where are they now? All closed. And, while the nightmare of just a handful of breweries producing all the country's beer never materialised, the bulk is brewed in just a few large breweries.
What's completely missing are the new arrivals at the bottom end. Not continuous-fermentation plants, but small traditional breweries. Though you can't really blame anyone in 1970, before any new breweries had been founded (other than Traquair House), for not predicting that.
It all goes to show what a mug's game predicting the long-term future is.
More... (http://barclayperkins.blogspot.com/2024/01/past-predictions-of-futiure.html)