Blog Tracker
30-04-2020, 11:19
Visit the Cooking Lager site (http://cookinglager.blogspot.com/2020/04/corona-ba-bye-na.html)
I was going to at some point start looking into how and why beer geeks infer morality into their consumer transactional choices, as hinted at the end of the last blog. I shall, but Tandleman (http://tandlemanbeerblog.blogspot.com/2020/04/a-daft-idea-but-serious-problem.html)got me all inspired on his latest blog post, regarding the reopening of pubs after the lockdown. Tand does that. Inspires. The father of beer bloggery. It is said that the Tand invented beer bloggery when he first plugged an 8 bit computer with a 2 digit numbers worth of kilobyte memory into a Prestel (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prestel)modem and connected it to a pre internet network of computers and after one too many cans of widget bitter (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Widget_(beer)) wrote on a 1980s message board “Ochs eye, Sparklers are brilliant and I won’t hear a word from soft southerners and their none sparkled pints of bitter”
There are multiple layers and assumptions in any predictive exercise and I’m thinking it will be interesting to see how events unfold, so I’ll lay out some assumptions. That normality as defined by pre Covid life is over a year away and will not occur until immunity is widespread in society via either a vaccine or wide recovery from Covid. That the purpose of a lockdown isn’t to prevent infection but to delay and manage infection rates to ensure health systems are not overwhelmed. By doing this, mortality rates are reduced as everyone that takes a turn for the worst gets the treatment and hospitals are not forced to triage (https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/medicine-and-dentistry/triage)patients. Herd immunity has become code for letting people die in the eyes of the MSM and it isn’t helped by the word herd that is used for cattle. But whatever you call it, Group, community, social immunity is a prerequisite for the old normal and actually all governments globally are intending to achieve it. So, I’m assuming this time next year we may still be dealing with Covid and not looking back on it.
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-EBlHp0EQdZg/XqqpoTvsNeI/AAAAAAAABAo/XCCSYFKM6P4sCmFJMvZ78Lg_cW4o9oFiwCLcBGAsYHQ/s320/b4b9d130d531e94eaad5c66bb9e9e12e--twin-peaks-girls-tilted-kilt.jpg (https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-EBlHp0EQdZg/XqqpoTvsNeI/AAAAAAAABAo/XCCSYFKM6P4sCmFJMvZ78Lg_cW4o9oFiwCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/b4b9d130d531e94eaad5c66bb9e9e12e--twin-peaks-girls-tilted-kilt.jpg)
Looking back at getting some lagers in down my old local sometimes gets me missing the old gaff
We also have government intervention in the form of payments to business. I may be wrong but I’m going to assume that may be time limited. The government may be willing to bail out businesses for a month or three but a year or more isn’t going to happen. After a while scrutiny occurs and at that point dishing out government money that ultimately all ends up in the hands of Caymans Island registered property companies may not maintain public support. Even if well-meaning and well-intentioned fools seeking to maintain the status quo (https://camra.org.uk/covid-19-response/save-pubs-cancel-rents/) “campaign” for it. For a pub to survive it will have to be commercially viable and follow some form or other of Covid restrictions. Even if we are all still dancing to Corona Ba-Bye Na, a pub is gonna have to turn a quid to survive.
Sound of the summer
So, I’m now assuming pubs may open on the basis of social distancing which would logically limit the number of concurrent patrons at any given time. This is essentially a supply side shock. Remember those supply and demand diagrams from economics you did at school?
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-jYJZQWIa5dI/Xqqp9a2bYYI/AAAAAAAABAw/AUP_cN2Qh-Mwi74vjmycYWD3O7jfwdLJwCLcBGAsYHQ/s320/D1.png (https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-jYJZQWIa5dI/Xqqp9a2bYYI/AAAAAAAABAw/AUP_cN2Qh-Mwi74vjmycYWD3O7jfwdLJwCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/D1.png)
More quality graphing showing the price of your pongy bitter
It’s a reduction in the number of places in any given pub. The degree of reduction would depend on the layout of a pub. 50%, 80%. I don’t know. Nor could I tell you the aggregate market shock. I booze in enough pubs to guess some pubs are better designed to lay out tables at a distance than others, but that’s the size of my guess. Now that simple supply / demand economics hints that a supply side shock shifts the supply curve and increases the price. That £3 pint is now £5 or £8 or £10 depending on the extent of the shock. It’s not unjustified. The economics of fewer “covers” as the restaurant business refers to them would infer higher prices. The price of a table at pre Covid McDonalds was around £4, but 3 or 4 people might use it per hour. The price of a table at Le Posh Fine Not Ping Food Cuisine might be £30 but heh, 1 punter might take the table for 2 to 3 hours. The economics of pubs isn’t different. Every pub has a supply side shock to a greater or lesser degree, whether a fast turnover chain like Wetherspoons or a linger here a while and get fleas from a mangy cat Trad Pub.
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-in2lHwo9Q_Q/XqqqLrFRspI/AAAAAAAABA0/_dB1i6wmvPwBe73iyXgwU1pRTX7OsZ0wACLcBGAsYHQ/s320/D2.png (https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-in2lHwo9Q_Q/XqqqLrFRspI/AAAAAAAABA0/_dB1i6wmvPwBe73iyXgwU1pRTX7OsZ0wACLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/D2.png)
Your supply side shock shifts S1 to S2 reducing sales whilst upping the price
But don’t we also have a demand side shock? I am going to postulate a change in the demand curve. Beer bloggery contains pub enthusiasts, people that love them at any price but among the wider less sentimental population the hospitality offer is different. Socially distanced pubs have less atmosphere, less opportunity to interact with other customers and offer a different experience. You may or may not be invited to use them with friends, and you may have to limit family and friendship groups. There is also a perceived risk factor. Do a wider public miss pubs enough to potentially risk infection from other punters? If people are going about their daily life in a mask, wearing it on a train and in a shop, doesn’t that denote a desire to reduce risk? Why increase your risk by voluntarily stepping inside an environment of others and taking your mask off? I expect a demand side shock. Actually, there is less demand for the Covid hospitality than pre Covid hospitality.
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-PUk9RLh9khg/Xqqqa8hugWI/AAAAAAAABA8/wGZPVRpEJYsgolWtvZ18GN8nzY46c_58wCLcBGAsYHQ/s320/D3.png (https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-PUk9RLh9khg/Xqqqa8hugWI/AAAAAAAABA8/wGZPVRpEJYsgolWtvZ18GN8nzY46c_58wCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/D3.png)
Add in a demand side shock and you shift D1 to D2, dipping the price back a bit, reducing sales further but still getting a higher price per pint than of old
So, with the help of diagrams I’m predicting this next year there will be fewer pubs, more expensive beer. Put don’t panic. Here at the cooking lager institute of graphs and shit, we’ve got your back. Pricier pong can be mitigated. Go get yourself a slab of Carlsberg from the Lidl and ride it out.
More... (http://cookinglager.blogspot.com/2020/04/corona-ba-bye-na.html)
I was going to at some point start looking into how and why beer geeks infer morality into their consumer transactional choices, as hinted at the end of the last blog. I shall, but Tandleman (http://tandlemanbeerblog.blogspot.com/2020/04/a-daft-idea-but-serious-problem.html)got me all inspired on his latest blog post, regarding the reopening of pubs after the lockdown. Tand does that. Inspires. The father of beer bloggery. It is said that the Tand invented beer bloggery when he first plugged an 8 bit computer with a 2 digit numbers worth of kilobyte memory into a Prestel (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prestel)modem and connected it to a pre internet network of computers and after one too many cans of widget bitter (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Widget_(beer)) wrote on a 1980s message board “Ochs eye, Sparklers are brilliant and I won’t hear a word from soft southerners and their none sparkled pints of bitter”
There are multiple layers and assumptions in any predictive exercise and I’m thinking it will be interesting to see how events unfold, so I’ll lay out some assumptions. That normality as defined by pre Covid life is over a year away and will not occur until immunity is widespread in society via either a vaccine or wide recovery from Covid. That the purpose of a lockdown isn’t to prevent infection but to delay and manage infection rates to ensure health systems are not overwhelmed. By doing this, mortality rates are reduced as everyone that takes a turn for the worst gets the treatment and hospitals are not forced to triage (https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/medicine-and-dentistry/triage)patients. Herd immunity has become code for letting people die in the eyes of the MSM and it isn’t helped by the word herd that is used for cattle. But whatever you call it, Group, community, social immunity is a prerequisite for the old normal and actually all governments globally are intending to achieve it. So, I’m assuming this time next year we may still be dealing with Covid and not looking back on it.
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-EBlHp0EQdZg/XqqpoTvsNeI/AAAAAAAABAo/XCCSYFKM6P4sCmFJMvZ78Lg_cW4o9oFiwCLcBGAsYHQ/s320/b4b9d130d531e94eaad5c66bb9e9e12e--twin-peaks-girls-tilted-kilt.jpg (https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-EBlHp0EQdZg/XqqpoTvsNeI/AAAAAAAABAo/XCCSYFKM6P4sCmFJMvZ78Lg_cW4o9oFiwCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/b4b9d130d531e94eaad5c66bb9e9e12e--twin-peaks-girls-tilted-kilt.jpg)
Looking back at getting some lagers in down my old local sometimes gets me missing the old gaff
We also have government intervention in the form of payments to business. I may be wrong but I’m going to assume that may be time limited. The government may be willing to bail out businesses for a month or three but a year or more isn’t going to happen. After a while scrutiny occurs and at that point dishing out government money that ultimately all ends up in the hands of Caymans Island registered property companies may not maintain public support. Even if well-meaning and well-intentioned fools seeking to maintain the status quo (https://camra.org.uk/covid-19-response/save-pubs-cancel-rents/) “campaign” for it. For a pub to survive it will have to be commercially viable and follow some form or other of Covid restrictions. Even if we are all still dancing to Corona Ba-Bye Na, a pub is gonna have to turn a quid to survive.
Sound of the summer
So, I’m now assuming pubs may open on the basis of social distancing which would logically limit the number of concurrent patrons at any given time. This is essentially a supply side shock. Remember those supply and demand diagrams from economics you did at school?
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-jYJZQWIa5dI/Xqqp9a2bYYI/AAAAAAAABAw/AUP_cN2Qh-Mwi74vjmycYWD3O7jfwdLJwCLcBGAsYHQ/s320/D1.png (https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-jYJZQWIa5dI/Xqqp9a2bYYI/AAAAAAAABAw/AUP_cN2Qh-Mwi74vjmycYWD3O7jfwdLJwCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/D1.png)
More quality graphing showing the price of your pongy bitter
It’s a reduction in the number of places in any given pub. The degree of reduction would depend on the layout of a pub. 50%, 80%. I don’t know. Nor could I tell you the aggregate market shock. I booze in enough pubs to guess some pubs are better designed to lay out tables at a distance than others, but that’s the size of my guess. Now that simple supply / demand economics hints that a supply side shock shifts the supply curve and increases the price. That £3 pint is now £5 or £8 or £10 depending on the extent of the shock. It’s not unjustified. The economics of fewer “covers” as the restaurant business refers to them would infer higher prices. The price of a table at pre Covid McDonalds was around £4, but 3 or 4 people might use it per hour. The price of a table at Le Posh Fine Not Ping Food Cuisine might be £30 but heh, 1 punter might take the table for 2 to 3 hours. The economics of pubs isn’t different. Every pub has a supply side shock to a greater or lesser degree, whether a fast turnover chain like Wetherspoons or a linger here a while and get fleas from a mangy cat Trad Pub.
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-in2lHwo9Q_Q/XqqqLrFRspI/AAAAAAAABA0/_dB1i6wmvPwBe73iyXgwU1pRTX7OsZ0wACLcBGAsYHQ/s320/D2.png (https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-in2lHwo9Q_Q/XqqqLrFRspI/AAAAAAAABA0/_dB1i6wmvPwBe73iyXgwU1pRTX7OsZ0wACLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/D2.png)
Your supply side shock shifts S1 to S2 reducing sales whilst upping the price
But don’t we also have a demand side shock? I am going to postulate a change in the demand curve. Beer bloggery contains pub enthusiasts, people that love them at any price but among the wider less sentimental population the hospitality offer is different. Socially distanced pubs have less atmosphere, less opportunity to interact with other customers and offer a different experience. You may or may not be invited to use them with friends, and you may have to limit family and friendship groups. There is also a perceived risk factor. Do a wider public miss pubs enough to potentially risk infection from other punters? If people are going about their daily life in a mask, wearing it on a train and in a shop, doesn’t that denote a desire to reduce risk? Why increase your risk by voluntarily stepping inside an environment of others and taking your mask off? I expect a demand side shock. Actually, there is less demand for the Covid hospitality than pre Covid hospitality.
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-PUk9RLh9khg/Xqqqa8hugWI/AAAAAAAABA8/wGZPVRpEJYsgolWtvZ18GN8nzY46c_58wCLcBGAsYHQ/s320/D3.png (https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-PUk9RLh9khg/Xqqqa8hugWI/AAAAAAAABA8/wGZPVRpEJYsgolWtvZ18GN8nzY46c_58wCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/D3.png)
Add in a demand side shock and you shift D1 to D2, dipping the price back a bit, reducing sales further but still getting a higher price per pint than of old
So, with the help of diagrams I’m predicting this next year there will be fewer pubs, more expensive beer. Put don’t panic. Here at the cooking lager institute of graphs and shit, we’ve got your back. Pricier pong can be mitigated. Go get yourself a slab of Carlsberg from the Lidl and ride it out.
More... (http://cookinglager.blogspot.com/2020/04/corona-ba-bye-na.html)