View Full Version : The Pub Curmudgeon - Pride before a fall?

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16-05-2015, 16:09
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I recently wrote about the travails of Tesco (http://pubcurmudgeon.blogspot.co.uk/2015/04/how-are-mighty-fallen.html), which had expanded beyond the point at which the business was sustainable, and raised the question as to whether the same fate might eventually befall Wetherspoon’s.
Love them or loathe them, Spoons have been the great pub success story of recent years, proving that even in a declining market you can still thrive by giving customers what they want. I’ve written about the reasons behind their rise here (http://pubcurmudgeon.blogspot.co.uk/2010/10/secret-of-our-success.html).
They still seem to be going from strength to strength, with a solid programme of new openings in the pipeline. They reckon that their ultimate goal is about 2,000 pubs – twice as many as they have today – which would mean that few people in the UK would not be within easy reach of a branch.
It hasn’t been a seamless ascent, though. Over the years they have encountered a number of setbacks, for example

in the late 90s becoming too closely associated with the “night-time economy” in major cities
jumping the gun on both full measures (which never happened) and the smoking ban (which, sadly, did), both of which alienated customersmore recently, trying to push prices up in some branches in more prosperous areas and meeting much customer resistance

They have also made a number of errors in site selection, most notably the Edwin Chadwick in Longsight which even I would have warned them about. However, the juggernaut keeps rolling on.
I do wonder, though, whether they are now running into the same problems as Tesco – diminishing number of suitable new sites, and the risk of new openings cannibalising trade from existing venues. There are plenty of towns – such as Preston – where one Spoons has recently become two.
I’m not saying they’re anywhere near banging their heads against the ceiling, but that day must come. Tim Martin has just turned 60, and won’t be around forever. Some have suggested that the company depends on his personality holding it all together.
But my recommendation as to when to sell the shares would be on the day they make a public announcement that they are going to segment their pubs between different categories. It may seem to make commercial sense, but it will undermine the whole concept. The fact that a Spoons is a Spoons wherever you go is, to my mind, their USP.

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